We are on our way to the polls, within a few days we will elect a new government. When it’s over the poor will still be poor, the housing crisis will still exist, climate change will be a topic of conversation and the same issues will follow the same track.

The reason is because we listen to what politicians say or we don’t listen at all. In many cases we take their words verbatim. We believe it’s what they intend to do right away and we inflate our own expectations that our individual priorities are their priorities.

For just a moment lets leave our partisan hats outside the door and look at the whole picture regardless of our preference. The first order of business is to listen to what they are not saying. The promises are blue prints or visions of where they and their party want to go. Even if one or another gets a majority we must understand that party still can’t just do what they want.

That is a good thing actually for each of us we would only be happy if our party wins and realistically there is only a one in three chance of that happening. Keeping that in mind how does a promise become a reality? Remember the promise will be an amended promise in the end.

First legislation is drafted it’s a concept, it’s then opposed and from there a series of amendments are proposed and voted on. Depending on how long that takes it is still no slam dunk. Politics is a living entity and sometimes by the time the promise is fulfilled the public mood has changed. At present we have a polarized electorate and a government of any stripe is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

The political landscape is a mixed bag of discontent at the moment and the discontent is with all of the above as it were, so what is the likely reality beyond our over hopeful vision?

In the west we are seeing a slight change in some voting patterns, our communities are growing and new people means new voters, and younger people are voting. The public mood is changing as well. We know what happens when angry people vote or happy people vote but when voters are restless often as not they don’t know themselves how they are going to vote.

First what did the parties count on and what is actually happening according to tracking polls?
Trudeau thought he had a slam dunk majority. The Conservatives tried their best to soften their image and for a while it was working. The NDP stuck to bread and butter issues.

As always happens the fear factor comes out of the closet and the parties bash each other with negative adds. People condemn negative adds but the truth is they respond to them.

There is some interesting jousting going on with the Peoples Party and the Conservative Party. In close riding’s vote splits could see Liberal orNDP Candidates win. Other battles with NDP and Liberals could see Conservatives win. In the end the Greens and Peoples Party won’t win seats but they may prove to be spoilers.

In BC the conservatives and NDP are tied at around thirty percent. The Liberals third. In fact the Liberals are third from BC to the Ontario boarder. The Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. When the polls say the Liberals and Conservatives are in a virtual tie the truth is hidden. The big Conservative numbers are in the west. The vote rich seat counts are in the east.

From what I have seen so far we are headed for another Liberal Minority with the NDP and the Bloc holding the balance of power. Welcome to square one when it’s over.

Fred Steele