There is no News
Not much of a news day, today, in the middle of December – if you don’t count the outgoing Kentucky Governor who wrote 428 pardons and commutations before leaving.
In the USA, the impeachment articles are going to the House. They’ll pass. They’ll go to the Senate for trial. The Speaker is coordinating with the White House to defend the President. I suspect that Mitch is saying, ‘Just shut up and let us handle this’. The Senate will acquit.
Johnson got a Brexit mandate. Ho-hum. The UK will be out of the EU by the end of January. There was a crawler on CBC News that went like this, ‘a seaside village that voted overwhelmingly in the referendum to leave the EU, is now divided on the Johnson victory’. What?
Scheer will step aside. Yawn. Trudeau has given marching orders to his cabinet: reconciliation, gun control, universal drug plan, lower taxes, and a military that is 25% female. Good luck.
Independent MP Wilson-Raybould won’t move out of her old office. Speaker says she will. Another major parliamentary crisis in Canadian history.
North Korea tested another long-range missile. Surprise.
Nothing from Russia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Syria, France, Germany, or Greece.
There will be no news until next year. Everyone is taking time off.
This is fertile ground for a prediction. Ready?
Donald John Trump will face Michael Rubens Bloomberg in the 2020 US Presidential election and lose. Trump will lose on the popular vote – as he did in 2016 – and he will lose in the Electoral College – unlike last time.
Why will the Democrats put Bloomberg forward as their candidate? Because Biden has too much baggage, makes too many gaffes, and has no command experience. Because Bernie and Elizabeth are both too much, too far, and too soon. Because Buttigeig is too smart, too young, and can’t gain traction among Black American voters.
Bloomberg is a centrist, has a good track record, and is the self-made man that Trump wants to be. He’s smart enough, experienced enough, and rich enough. Statistically, there is a direct and probably causal relationship between money spent and success at the polls. Bloomberg has money. He will spend. He will win – first the nomination, then the Presidency.
And fertile ground for advice. Ready?
If you want my advice, Donald, you should start negotiating a plea bargain with the Southern District of New York and resign before the election. That would take you out of the White House, but it could also keep you out of jail.
Not your cup of tea, Donald?
OK. There is a Plan B option. Run as an Independent. Why not? You have a guaranteed 35% of the vote and the rest will be shared by the other two parties. You could win. Problem? Well, maybe. You will be alone. No party. No people. No platform.
But you can keep the office.
Stuart Syme