Bring on Global Warming

Global warming is real. No argument. I won’t argue about cause. I would rather prepare for the effects.

I gave up worrying about global warming back in 2015 when I discovered a paper titled “Global Non-linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production”.

Why? Because the Canadian GDP per capita will increase by 247% by 2100 because of global warming compared to a world without global warming. By contrast, the US GDP per capita will decrease by 36% at the same time under the same conditions. Mexico – down 73%, Sweden – up 210%, Australia – down 53%, Russia– up 419%.

Are you seeing a pattern?

The effects of increasing temperature – climate, not weather – are these: The water holding capacity of air increases exponentially with temperature. Therefore, as temperature increases the water cycle will intensify, leading to more severe floods and droughts and making more energy available for storms and hurricanes. A small increase in the mean temperature will dramatically increase the frequency of extreme events. In cooler regions, low levels of warming will improve conditions for crop growth – by extending the growing season and by making new areas suitable for production – depending upon the crop. A sharp increase in deaths will be seen in areas where the temperature rises above what humans can tolerate. Increasing temperature and temperature gradients increases wind speed. Infrastructure damage increases as a cube of wind speed. Increasing temperature releases captured water and raises the mean sea level. The costs of sea-wall construction increase as a square of height.

The result is this: Those countries that are ‘colder’ now will benefit from global warming. Those countries that are ‘hotter’ already could get too hot for people and crops. Those colder countries that have available unused land now will have more development potential. Canada, Sweden, and Russia – and other ‘colder’ countries – will benefit from global warming. The US, Mexico, Australia, Japan, India, South America, Africa – and others – will not.

Therefore? Canadians will become decreasingly dependent upon imported food. Immigration and migration to Canada will increase as populations move north. Snowbirds will not have to cross the border to survive the winter cold. More will come north to escape the summer heat. Infrastructure appropriate to the new climate will be expensive. We may have to abandon the Lower Mainland.

Prince George will become the new Wine Capital.

Species in equatorial regions – including homo sapiens – will migrate or die.

Species in extreme north and south latitudes will adapt or die – migration is not an option.

The balance of world commerce and world power will shift toward the poles. The role of Canada, Russia, and China will increase. The role of the US and southern Europe will decrease.

Drawing a square on a map in order to create an area within which the existing flora and fauna will be protected is nugatory – ineffective, invalid, and futile – in the face of global warming.

Bottom Line: The consequences of global warming are not universal. People that will benefit should not be implementing the ‘solutions’ that those who will suffer must implement. Canada and Canadians should be planning for and responding to what will happen in Canada.

I’m not saying do nothing. I’m saying proceed from a position of knowledge.

by Stuart Syme