At the end of Part Two, I said that I don’t think Trump will leave if he loses the 2020 election.
During the 2016 campaign (on 19 October 2016) and before the actual election (always held, by law, on the “Tuesday following the first Monday in November), Trump refused to commit to accepting the result of the upcoming presidential elections.
After winning the election, Trump tweeted. “… I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally”.
In September 2017, Trump advisor Roger Stone was asked about the prospect of impeachment and responded, “You will have a spasm of violence in this country, an insurrection like you’ve never seen.” In addition, there was a YouTube video “Roger Stone Prepares for Civil War after Trump is Removed from Office” showing him – and others – at a range. Mind you, Stone’s trial date has been set for November.
Following the 2018 mid-term elections when Republicans lost the House, Trump said, “The Republicans don’t win and that’s because of potentially illegal votes.” He described these illegal voters as people who changed their clothes and voted multiple times.
Trump himself at a closed-door meeting of GOP donors at his Mar-a-Lago resort on 3 March 2019, said, “He’s now president for life. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot some day.” Trump was referring to the Chinese government decision to abolish term limits and allow President Xi Jinping to rule indefinitely.
87% of Republicans support Trump. 47% of Republicans believe he won the popular vote in 2016. 68% of Republicans believe that millions of illegal immigrants voted in 2016. 73% of Republicans believe that voter fraud happens somewhat or very often.
52% of Republicans support postponing the 2020 election until the voter fraud ‘problem’ is solved.
Not all autocrats come to power as the result of a coup. Some transform their (legitimate) term into an autocratic reality by taking several (legal) steps in preparation:
Politicize law enforcement. Criminalize the opposition. Attack the media. Get cosy with the military. Undermine the electoral process.
There is ample evidence that all are underway.
Recently, Trump declared an emergency – the President can do that – and said that he would fund his southern wall by taking money from other programs. The (Democrat-controlled) House overwhelmingly passed a resolution to terminate this emergency declaration. The Senate agreed (59 to 41) because 12 Republican senators voted with the Democrat senators not necessarily because they don’t support Trump but primarily because they believe that Congress decides how taxpayer money gets spent. However, without a two-thirds majority, the President immediately tweet-shouted, “VETO!” for that resolution, and the fight can only be continued in the courts. Meanwhile, his emergency declaration stands.
So, if the 2020 election proceeds – an open question – and if Trump loses – not a foregone conclusion – and if he declares that loss to be the result of voter fraud – quite likely – can he then declare an emergency that requires him to remain in office until there is no more voter fraud?
Should you care?
Stuart Syme