Can Putin ensure the second-term re-election of Donald Trump?

It’s not going to take as much effort in 2020 as it took in 2016. For one, there is almost no doubt that Trump will be the GOP candidate. No need to win the primaries; just focus on the election.

Impeachment you say? Won’t happen. Can’t happen. For three reasons: one, if some rookie representative moves too early it will fail; two, because Speaker Pelosi wants to wait for the Mueller report and other investigations (SDNY in particular); and three, because it needs Republican support – and that support does not exist.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are imploding. More than a dozen candidates. Strong policy division between left and centre. Serious multiple faux pas by inexperienced, newly-elected representatives. And since they now control the House, an inordinate expenditure of effort to exercise oversight.

Besides, if it becomes necessary, you could just insert a billionaire independent candidate to split the vote because the Trump base – not less than 38% – is secure.  There are nine declared independent candidates already but Schultz who has not yet declared is the only one who fits this description.

And if Trump does not win the election, it still won’t matter. Trump cannot afford to leave office.

There is a Justice Department document that – coincidentally – says that you cannot haul a sitting President into court. But that document was never meant to protect the President. It was originally written to force the resignation of Vice-President Agnew. In 1979, Agnew was under suspicion of criminal conspiracy, bribery, extortion, and tax fraud. He eventually pled no contest to a single count of tax evasion and resigned. Essential to forcing his resignation was this internal Justice Department document that permitted the indictment of a sitting Vice-President – it wasn’t intended to protect the President, it was intended to put pressure on a Vice-President who was taking cash bribes in his office. Unfortunately – and coincidentally – that same document included the opinion that a sitting President could not be indicted. That document has been held as gospel ever since. Trump lives under that protection as long as he is in office. He cannot afford to leave office before the expiry of the statute of limitations – about 10 years in his cases. Two down, eight to go.

Trump’s family and friends are being indicted – and indictments will continue. His son and son-in-law will be indicted. As long as the charges are under federal law, President Trump can pardon the convicted. He cannot afford to leave office before he pardons his friends and, in particular, his family.

Most of the money invested in the Trump organization is Russian money. As long as he can protect those investments, make money for the investors, and make their lives easier, he will be allowed to use their money. He cannot afford to leave office and settle his debts. He cannot afford to cross his investors. Besides, he is in a very good position as President to protect and further the money-making endeavours of the Trump organization and the political aims of Putin.

Three examples: One. Instead of moving the crumbling FBI headquarters out of Washington-centre, he just ordered that it be knocked down and re-built where it is. That way no one can build a luxury hotel to compete with the nearby Trump property. Two. Give your friends and children top-secret security clearances even though your own intelligence organizations object. As President you can do that. Why would you? Now your children and your companies and their companies have access to a wealth of classified data perhaps even including the products of The Five Eyes. This is a huge business advantage and it supports Putin’s desire to drive a wedge among the Western allies. Three. Provide US nuclear power technology to Saudi-Arabia through a company owned by his son-in-law. Illegal but doable as long as you are President.

Now why does a country with so much oil need nuclear power? Let’s see … who belongs to the nuclear weapons club? US, Russia, UK, France, Israel, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Maybe Iran. But not Saudi Arabia.

Can Putin ensure the second-term re-election of Donald Trump? Wrong question.

Will Trump leave if he loses? That’s the real question. I don’t think he will.

Do you care?

Stuart Syme