Continued warm weather over the past week, particularly over the southern half of the province, has led to on-going rapid melt of this season’s snow pack. Snowmelt observed at the provincial Automated Snow Weather Stations (ASWS), and preliminary May 1st manual snow surveys is indicating a rapid depletion of snow over the past month. The average from all of the ASWS dropped from 92% of normal on April 1st to 63% of normal on May 1st.  Snowmelt across the province is approximately 4 weeks earlier than normal at most observation locations.

Streamflow has generally remained above normal for this time of year as a result of the early shift in the melt season. With more moderate weather patterns over the past week, river levels have remained fairly stable.

Temperatures are expected to be warm but not extreme into this weekend. Snow melt rates are expected to rise in response to these temperatures, with rising river levels through most of the province. In the South Interior, flows may reach up to 2-year return period flows (e.g. similar or less than flows observed during the mid-April hot spell). Elsewhere in the province, flows are expected see modest rises, and remain below 2-year return period levels.

Unsettled weather is expected early next week, followed by further ridging and stable conditions. Following higher flows this weekend, rivers are expected to remain stable through most of next week.

The River Forecast Centre continues to monitor conditions and will provide updates as conditions warrant. The next Provincial River Outlook will be issued on Thursday May 12th, unless conditions change significantly.